Current lack of volatility in the markets – What to do!
Since we came out of the traditional Summer Slowdown in the markets (which ends after the US Labor Day holidays), the markets have been acting unusually. Unusually slow and choppy for the time of year. We’ve had 2 presidents threatening to nuke each other – and the markets barely reacted. We’ve made all time highs, which were met with a yawn.
There is a precedent for a more lively market in October and a push up to the end of the year AKA the “Santa Rally”. Now, while I don’t think you can take seasonal activity like the “Santa Rally” to the bank, I do think this lack of volatility is unusual.
For people trading intraday, it means the range is smaller on our chosen markets. The markets are much thicker (more market depth) and in turn, less volatile. Markets like the ES will trade many more contracts to get through a level. 800 per level has been quite normal. It’ll trade 2-3000 contracts at a level with absolutely no reaction at all.
Things that you normally see in the order flow frequently aren’t there as often. That pretty much applies to all markets that are suffering from the slowdown.
So what’s the plan?
Something has to change obviously. When the markets revert to this sort of activity, they behave differently. When they behave differently, you have to trade differently. My own thoughts on this when we didn’t pick up after Labor Day were “give it some time to return to normal”. Given that hasn’t happened, there’s a few choices:
- Move to a more volatile market. The behavior of a market is related to liquidity/volatility. If you trade S&P500, you will find the NASDAQ is currently behaving more like a ‘normal’ S&P500.
- Play the range – it’s a bit dull but it’s a skill you’ll be able to use at traditionally slower periods like summertime & Christmas. Just play the range it forms. No need to take huge risk. When doing this, ideally you want to see correlated markets out of synch as that is a key indicator towards rangebound markets.
- Wait it out. Not a bad option but trading is a perishable skill and if this happens for an extended period, you are going to get rusty.
My preference is to move to a faster market. I am not a fan of Nasdaq because of the tick value but at the end of the day, if you are trading indices, then it’s a less drastic move. Same news events, same open close times, same correlations all apply. A move to Crude would be ok but there are few reliable correlated markets with Crude and there are different news announcements that drive it (like the inventory numbers). So if you move to a market in a different sector, do a bit of research.
Beginners
If you are new to order flow, then traditionally slower markets like Eurostoxx, Interest Rates and S&P500 are currently very poor places to start. This is mostly because it is very hard as a beginner to identify momentum on these instruments right now. In addition, there is so much time where the market is static, there’s simply nothing to see. Crude, Nasdaq are good places for the beginner right now. If Crude becomes a bit too fast when the market springs back to life, then just move to something more liquid.
Back to normal?
No-one really knows when this will end but this IS business as usual in a way. The markets are always changing pace. We have to change with it. So while this is unusually slow for the time of year, it’s a good idea to always keep an eye on the volatility (VIX Index is a good guide) so that you know about changes before they start costing you money.
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Order Flow itself is simply information. Just like charts, it can be used in a number of ways, some good and some bad. But let's first break down order flow into it's components so we all agree what we are talking about:
Order Executions/Tape Reading - This aspect is the real flow of orders. It's the information we see in Time & Sales, Footprint Charts, Cumulative Delta. It is looking at market orders, either as they execute or historically. I guess this is the "true order flow". Every trade is a buy and a sell. We look at market orders because we consider them to be more aggressive. When someone trades with a market orders, they are giving up a price to get an instant fill. Limit orders on the other hand just lazily sit there waiting for a market order to hit them. Often these are market makers with no directional conviction. So we see market orders as being more significant.
But we don't use these in isolation.
Volume Profile/Positions - The tape reading part helps us assess various things like momentum, traders getting stuck, balance of trade BUT the volume profile helps us understand where people are positioned and likely to get stopped out. I sometimes call this "Order Flew". It's important to know when trades will be "washed out" - for example - if we have a volume cluster on the S&P500 Futures and the market moves up 100 points and back down to it, it's unlikely short term traders on either side that were positioned there will still be there. But recent, nearby volume helps us assess areas of positions.
Market Depth - The bids and offers, the lazy passive orders waiting to be hit. This is part of the story but in terms of overall importance, I'd put it at around 20% at most. For example - if you return to the high of the day on any market, the offers will be quite large directly above the high. It means nothing at all. It's just a quirk of the market. It does not help you tell if a price will hold. On the other hand, if you see large depth and as we approach it, we see more added to the depth in front of that price, it means others are front running that depth and that is a useful bit of information.
This is the key - it is all just information. Just like price charts are information. When people look at Order Flow, they consider it to be a technique more than a set of information. They look for things like iceberg orders and decide to make a one rule trading system to fade every iceberg, For these people - yes, order flow trading is overrated because they are trying to ignore everything else going on in the markets and construct a trading system a chimp could execute.
For those looking to improve a decent trading approach, the best thing to focus on in Order Flow is momentum. Once you can read momentum you can:
- Avoid getting into positions when momentum is against you.
- Confirm trades are working after entry when momentum goes your way.
- Exit trades in profit when momentum fades.
That's perhaps the easiest way to use order flow because momentum is easier to read. It's about the market continuing to do what it's already doing. On the other hand, reading a turn in the market with order flow takes a higher level of skill and a little longer to learn.
Order flow can't put lipstick on a pig. It won't help you 'improve' something that doesn't work anyway, which is why whenever someone calls me, the first thing I ask is what they are currently doing and we discuss whether they need a reset or whether it will actually help.
When Jigsaw started back in 2011 - we were one of the first in the space and certainly had the best education. It was always going to attract the underbelly of the trading education/tools world and now we see stuff out there that is so complex but so impressive and futuristic that new traders are drawn to it like moths to a flame.
So here's my advice when looking at Order Flow
- Order Flow can't improve something that doesn't work.
- Order Flow can be used on it's own, without charts to enter and exit the market but you also have to be able to recognize different market states that need different/altered setups. There is nothing magical about this.
- Don't start jumping at shadows and take 50 trades an hour in your first week looking at Order Flow, be selective. It can be exciting to see cause and effect play out in front of you for the first time but don't overtrade.
- Do drills to learn how to read it before you trade it.
- Markets can only go up and down. Don't overcomplicate it. If you have too many Order Flow tools on your screen - you will not be able to make consistent decisions. Less is more.
- Take time to choose a market with a pace you like. Interest rates might send you to sleep, the DAX might give you a heart attack.
It is hard to see how a set of information could be overrated. It is true that some methods of presenting this information are better than others. It is also true that some people simply get on better with different tools (e.g. Footprint vs DOM).
There's a middle ground between complexity and simplicity that will leave you making consistent decisions where you improve over time. For those people, Order Flow will be way underrated because they will be the one's getting the most out of it.
Those that jump in with both feet on day one and those that have 100 different tools up, for those, it's a painful experience.
Keep it simple and manageable. Start with momentum reading and build from there. You will never look back.
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